I’ve backed Bletchley @ 3.75 for £20.
Then layed the same on Smarkets for £18.38 @ 4.1.
This costs £1.99 and will get us a free £20 bet if the horse finsihes 2nd or 3rd.
That amounts to odds of around 8/1 on the horse being 2nd or 3rd which is clearly a very good price.
First up no joy on the Thursday Europa League. Spartak dominated but ultimately couldn’t find the net before conceding a late sucker punch. Rio Ave fluffed their chance getting a man sent off at HT at 0-0, the match finished 1-1. So 3 from 5 and a tad unlucky but we move on.
Community Shield – Sunday 16:00 Leicester v Man Utd
Paddypower have made a rick in their pricing on the Community Shield, they’ve priced up either side to win on Penalties at 11-1, and given they also have a “win in extra time” market they don’t seem to realise this will go straight to penalties is the scores are level at 90mins.
I’ve had £5 each on @ 11/1, despite my account with them being restricted they accepted these bets. They could void them however so I’m not suggesting a lay bet.
Championship Outright Markets
To win:
Newcastle £15 @ 19/10 Sportingbet
Brighton £7.50 @ 15/1 Unitbet
Top Goalscorer:
Dwight Gayle £5 @ 10/1 Corals or 9/1 WillHill
I’ll be covering these bets in my ante-post guide pdf which I’m just finishing up. I’ll send you that once its finished but as it kicks off this evening best to get these out to you now.
Olympics Special – Unibet
Unibet are offering 5/2 on Usain Bolt to win Gold in the 100m, 200m and 4 x 100m relay.
Rolled up you can get similar odds in an acca, but I’m not sure they might void that as “related contingencies”, in any case the 5/2 boost from Unibet is worth being on in my book.
Bolt and Jamaica have won this treble of events in both of the last two Olympics.
£10 @ 5/2 Unibet
Skybet are offering money back as free bet if you lose in the 2.00 Goodwood today.
I’ve had £10 on Stars Over The Sea @ 8/1. You can bet up to £25 and still be entitled to the refund but I think a lower stakes bet will help keep my account under the radar.
I’m checking out the other offers about today and the football this morning too, I will update this afternoon with any bets.
Today is the penultimate stage of the Tour, that will effectively decide the top 10 positions, with only Sunday’s procession to Paris to come. I have had the privilege of riding today’s stage (minus the Col de la Ramaz) a couple of weeks ago at the Etape, and I can tell you that the final climb up the Joux Plane is every bit as bad as they are making out. Looking at the weather its not looking good, with rain on the cards anything could happen on the descents – that’s probably why Nibali is a shorter price today. However if they all stay upright it’s my belief that the best climber in the tour will win this stage. It doesn’t finish on the summit but it will take a very good descender to reel a gap created on the climb which could be significant. The bookies have priced it up like they have no idea of what’s going to happen making Valverde and Nibali tentative favourites at 8/1. I think we could see a similar scenario as yesterday however with the breakaway not allowed much leeway as GC teams seek to keep the pace high across all four Cols. If the break is within striking distance at the base of the Joux Plane then it will likely be a GC rider winning the day. To my eyes this is a similar stage to the penultimate stage in 2013 up the Semnoz, a mountain that saw Quintana and Froome duke it out with the pure climbing ability of Quintana winning the stage.
Again those two are regarded as the best two climbers in the race and I’m surprised to see both at 25/1+.
Froome did crash yesterday and will be sore, but he is hard as they come and I cannot see him being far from the front at any point today, he is by far the strongest rider this year and may want to stamp a final seal on this race by winning another stage. Quintana has suffered in recent days and doesn’t look at his absolute peak, but even so is not very far off on GC. He has experience on this climb; in the 2012 Critérium du Dauphiné, the Colombian claimed his first victory at WorldTour level as he descended at perfection after he rode away up to Joux-Plane. A victory here would put a shine on an otherwise below par Tour for him. I think this finale will really whittle down the best of the best and at big prices Froome and Quintana look worth a small involvement. I’m going Froome e/w as he cannot really sprint but is likely to close to whoever wins today.
Stage 20
£2 Froome @ 34.0 Betfair
£2 Quintana @ 44.0 Betfair
£2 Froome top 3 @ 6.7 Betfair
Not much joy on the Acca last night with Celtic going down at odds of 1-10 in Gibraltar.
That looked a night worth a bet and there may be more opportunities, but obviously I’ll look to keep the risk small with the form not established.
Today is another Spint stage on the Tour. It looks as likely a bunch finish as you’ll get, crosswinds aside, nothing is likely to stop the sprinters duelling it out at the finish. The market has it about right with the top two, Cavendish and Kittel look closely matched this year. Perhaps Cav @ 9/4 isn’t a bad bet, given he’s came out on top three times already and has a long history of picking up multiple stage wins. I wouldn’t put you off that but I’m happy with a small bet at a bigger price on Kiwi born Brit Dan McLay. He’s been mixing it where he’s no right to be this year, his sprint finish form reading 9973 thus far. So the 28/1 each way, giving us 7/1 on the top 3 looks decent. Especially given the confidence the rider will have gained from his first Grand Tour top 3 finish.
£2.50 e/w Dan McLay @ 28/1 Bet365
Saturday sees the start of the 103rd Tour de France and I see a little bit of value in betting on the winner of the first stage.
Typically a sprint stage the opening stage is again very flat this year and looks every unlikely to be anything other than a bunch sprint. The best sprinter in the peleton nowadays is without doubt German Marcel Kittel. He won the opening stage in ’13 & ’14 and despite having a torrid 2015 due to illness and luck, he looks back to his best this year. He’s got a very strong lead out train with Etixx-Quick-Step and he is rightfully favourite to win this. For me, the main concern is crashes, which do happen early on in the Tour, but if he’s thereabouts with his lead out in the finale without any hold ups the 6/4 will look a very tasty price indeed.
He’s closer to Even money elsewhere and I reckon could go odds-on come the day.
£15 Kittel to win stage 1 @ 6/4 Coral