UCI World Road Race – Cycling Value

Cycling, UCI World Championship Road Race (Mens)
Nibali @ 18/1, best value and main selection. An awesome tactician and one day racer this is HIS chance to win the Worlds. If he gets away over the last climb he will fancy taking more time on the technical descent to the finish. Secondary picks: Alaphilippe @ 5/1, most likely to win and 5/1 a fair price given amount of winning he’s been doing over super hilly parcours! Roglic @ 18/1 this guys not really under the radar anymore but fact he’s avoided the TT speaks volumes.  Should be a brutal, fascinating race. From a small group Nibali could get away, from a bigger group Alaphilippe could go clear or win in a sprint.

£5 Nibali @ 18/1 Skybet
£5 Alaphilippe @ 5/1 Coral/Lads/Betfred
£3 Roglic @ 18/1 BetVic

Cycling Value – Paris Roubaix

Bit of a stray away from the norm this morning with a look at the Paris-Roubaix on Sunday.
The team that has been totally dominant in the Spring Classics this season is unsurprisingly Quick Step Floors. Now they are without Tom Boonen the other teams don’t really know who to mark and they have been sharing the spoils between them with brilliant teamwork after getting more riders into the finale’s of races than any other teams. So whilst Sagan or Van Avermaet might be individually stronger their team mates are tending to get out numbered by quick step and unable to cover or make as many moves.
The difficulty is finding the value within the Quick Step team as they are as short as 2.10 to win with any rider.
I’m going to side with Philippe Gilbert who won the Tour of Flanders last year at about 20/1 and could be about to repeat the trick in this years Queen of the Classics, Paris Roubaix. This has been his focus since the turn of the year and his stated aim of winning all five monuments before retirement would have to include this race along with Milan San Remo, which was earlier in the year. He is on form having done a lot of work in the Tour of Flanders last weekend for his team mates and they could be about to return the favour this weekend.
He is as short as 6/1 with Unibet but you can get 12/1 Ladbrokes which I’ve used a boost to get 14/1 which I think is a nice price.
£5 Philippe Gilbert to win Paris Roubaix @ 14/1 Ladbrokes (boosted)

Cheltenham Day 4

1.30 Triumph Hurdle
£10 Mr Adjudicator @ 8/1 Betway – MB as Freebet if loses.
£20 Redicean @ 7/1 Skybet – MB as Freebet if loses.

 

3.30 Gold Cup
Bet365 Freebet qualifier for £25 Freebet in this race, backed/layed Apples Shakira in the first:  https://www.screencast.com/t/xDOBtzV2bWuZ

£25 (Freebet) Mite Bite @ 4/1 Bet365

£10 Killultagh Vic @ 9/1 Genting – MB as Freebet if loses.

 

5:30 Handicap Chase
£10 Foxtail Hill @ 20/1 Betway – MB as Freebet if loses.

£10 Betfairsportsbook Multiple
I’m using this on Apples Shikira in the 1.30 @ 5/4 and Native River in the 3.30 @ 11/2 as a 14.62 Double, its a big price but if the first goes in we’ll have the top four covered in the market all providing nice wins.
(Bet £10 with Betfair Exchange to win on the Gold Cup @ 3.30 to get another £10 BetfairSB multiple for the weekend, I’ve gone with £10 on Our Duke, without the lay, if you want this risk free you can lay off for minimal risk on Smarkets: https://www.screencast.com/t/b8iT2YWSrX )

 

 

Cheltenham Day 3

1:30 JLT Novices Chase
£20 Invitiaton Only @ 10/3 Skybet – MB as Freebet if loses
£10 Terrafort @ 7/2 Betway – MB as Freebet if loses

2.50 Ryanair Chase
Upto £25 Freebet with Bet365, qualifier required. (Back and Lay Laurina in the 4:50 for the cheapest qualifier: https://www.screencast.com/t/R4gqJDKt3EW )
£25 on Cue Card @ 6.0 (You could lay this off and take £18, I’m gonna roll the dice on this one though)

3.30 Stayers Hurdle
Back and lay Sams Spinner on Betfair Exchange (lay on Smarkets) for £10 to qualify for Betfairsportsbook FB tomorrow.
Here the calcs:  https://www.screencast.com/t/NvnpAeNEm

£10 on Supasundae @ 7/1 Gentingbet – MB as Freebet if loses
(I’ve gotta feeling its gonna be a pain to withdraw from these, so any winnings might as well be worthwhile!)

5.30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase
£10 Pendra @ 16/1 Betway – MB as Freebet if loses

£10 Free Betfairsportsbook Multiple:
2.50 Un De Sceaux @ 8/11
3.30 Sam Spinnner @ 10/3
£10 Freebet double with Betfairsportsbook @ 7.48

 

Cheltenham Day 2

I have just finalised dealing with Freebet’s returned to my accounts from Day 1, I suggest you do the same if you’ve not yet done so.
Look to cash out on the early races (and same race) if you can so that it limited how much exchange funds you have tied up.
Tuesday results looked like this: +75,-6,-5.55,-9,+0.2,-2,-6.50,+60. All in £106.15 up.
As a side note that £9 loss was from the Coral offer (Bet £25 will get back £16.03 from Freebet cashout), however I have used the Freebet each way on the Coral Cup, which pays SEVEN places with them. So by betting Le Breuil @ 14/1 e/w (15.0/3.8 decimal) and laying on Smarkets in win and place markets at 18.0/5.3 I got most of the Freebet value back with the added benefit that if the horse finishes 5th 6th or 7th I’ll win BOTH on the Exchange AND bookies, so +£35 Coral and +£16.03 Smarkets (+£51.03).


1:30 Ballymore Novice Hurdle
£30 Samcro @ 1.7 Lads (double winnings promo) layed on Smarkets as shown: https://www.screencast.com/t/7SgcPianwG2Y
£20 Next Destination @ 7/2 Skybet – MB as Free Bet if loses.
£10 Black Op @ 9/1  Betway  – MB as Free Bet if loses.

3:30 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Here’s my qualifier for today’s Bet365 bet £25 get £25 (max free bet may vary), on Samcro in the 1:30

2018-03-14_1043

For the £25 Freebet in the 15:30 Champion Chase with Bet365, call me boring but I’ll just take the £19 guaranteed, by backing and laying Min as shown: https://www.screencast.com/t/fQjDGiig
£10 Min @ 3/1 Genting  – MB as Free Bet if loses.
For a more speculative strategy you could instead go with the free £25 in Min (no lay) and the £10 risk free on Politologue @ 12/1, but then of course you might get nothing.
Lastly, do a back and lay on Betfair Exchange/Smarkets (before any other bets on this market), back on Betfair Exchange, lay on Smarkets, that should qualify you for another Sportsbook free bet. (see: https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=B10G10CHELTD2)

Betfair Sportsbook Freebet Multiple (From yesterday)
1.30 Samcro @ 8/11
3.30 Altior @ 11/10
£10 Freebet Double @ 3.62

5.30 Champion Bumper
£10 Carefully Selected @ 9/1 Betway – MB as Free Bet if loses.

Cheltenham

Betfair: 
https://promotions.betfair.com/ret-exc-uk-b10-g10-cheltenham-d1

Backed and layed Buveur Dair to qualify for this. I’ll post the multiple on Weds.

The below are only bets if you’re taking advantage of the FreeBet offers, ie have unrestricted accounts.
13:30 Cheltenham, Supreme Novice Bets:
£20 Kalashnikov @ 5/1 Skybet – MB as freebet if loses.
£10 Summerville Boy @ 15/2 Betway – MB as freebet if loses.
Back Getabird with WillHill AND lay on Smarkets, double winnings paid as CASH if wins (note, if non runner be sure to back/lay the new fav)
Example of cost here:  https://www.screencast.com/t/RwbLmREUimB
£5 Freebet from yesterday on Slate House @ 20/1 WillHill
£25 on First Flow @ 13.0 Coral – MB as free bet if loses (https://www.screencast.com/t/0Ed8nrtHU)
£4 Mengli Khan @ 22/1 (boosted) Ladbrokes – Double Winnings upto £50 as freebets if wins. Layed off on Smarkets for zero risk as shown: https://www.screencast.com/t/Ox82VQQSbp

15:30 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle
Used £25 Freebet with Bet365 on £12.50 e/w Faugheen @ 6.50

16:50 Cheltenham National Hunt Chase
£20 Jury Duty @ 7.0 Genting Bet – MB as freebet if loses (only if first losing race of day)

17:30 Novice Handicap Chase
£10 Betway – MB as freebet if loses. £10 on Mister Whitaker

Mayweather Jr v McGregor

I’ve stayed on the fence and tried to avoid the hype as much as possible with this fight as much as possible.
It’s a mass marketing exercise in making lots of money on a global scale.
It seems to me that its all about Mayweather making yet a few dollars more and getting his record to 50 and 0 and for McGregor simply about making barrel loads of cash, probably much more that he’ll ever make from UFC. That’s my take. Maybe I’m wrong.
As a sporting contest I can’t help thinking people are being sold a total circus and a dud of a fight.
Mayweather v Pacquiao was meant to be the fight of the century and that turned out like the rest of Mayweather’s fights – routine.
Ladbrokes are probably the shrewdest of the bookmakers and they are trying to sell 33/1 McGregor as a massively inflated price to entice new customers in. Frankly he should be at least that price in all books as far as I’m concerned.
He’s fighting a man who has came up against the best of the best boxers, fighters that have spent careers improving and fighting their way up through the professional ranks. None of these fighters could get close to beating Mayweather.
Now he is off the back of a lay-off and all that, but I cant buy any MMA fighter having a shot against someone of Mayweather’s boxing ability. Sure he has a punchers chance, but its remote at best.
Something like this being a one off event with an MMA fighter making the cross over to boxing carries an element of the unknown, but the most likely outcome is another defensive performance and points victory for Mayweather.
9 of his last 10 fights have gone the distance.
With all that in mind, Betstars offer seems the best of the bunch:

So, with the safety net of an unlikely McGregor KO we can bet Mayweather on Pts @ 9/4.
£15 Mayweather on Pts (Round Betting Market) @ 9/4 with Betstars (money back if McGregor wins by KO)

Note: Since I wrote this, Betstars went from 5/2 to 9/4, and you can now get 3/1 on the Mayweather pts victory on the exchanges, which is a good option if you agree that there’s a very low chance of a McGregor by knockout result.
Update 26/8 Hills have a boost offering Mayweather on pts @ 4/1, take that if you are yet to bet.

Another bet, which is kind of a saver on the above bet, is Skybet’s “oddschecker special”:


I like the rationale behind this one, the UFC fighter will certainly be fit and ready and has plenty of stamina being used to 5 minute UFC rounds, he can also take a punch and get back up. But this isn’t the Octagon and lying on the floor in a closed guard aint an option, you’ve got to stand up and and take punches again. If Mayweather fancies it, he could get rid of McGregor in the last quarter of the fight.
Mayweather to win by KO or TKO in Rnd 9-12 and McGregor to be knocked down 2+ times £3 @ 10/1 Skybet.



Ladbrokes Epsom Derby Day Special

Check current odds and use the calculator to check the lay stake, but you should be able to qualify for this free bet for about £2 as I have done by backing/laying Tartini at the odds shown below:

For the £10 Free bet its not worth siding with the favourite as the reward isn’t that great.
So I’ll go with Urban Fox @ 9/1.
( You could under-lay this to make a guaranteed profit but it’d only be about £6 after the qualifying bet loss)

Ladbrokes Saturday Specials

1:55 Newbury – Ladbrokes Money Back Special
First up a racing special – worth getting involved in this one.
You could play for the freebet buy laying off but I’ll just have £25 on the Favourite Midterm @ 5/2
If we lose we’ll get a freebet refund that should be worth about £19 once cashed out.


Ladbrokes In Play Offer – Chelsea v Tottenham (17:15 KO)
Bet £20.00 in play via mobile on Chelsea v Tottenham and Ladbrokes will give us a £10.00 free in play bet to be used on Burnley v Man Utd on Sunday. I’ll post a qualifier for this via twitter. As usual I’ll probably just back over or under 2.5 or Both teams to score yes/no depending on back/lay odds.
Freebet: Man Utd to win 1-0 as soon as in play @ around 5.50