Saturday 31st Oct

Posted on October 31, 2020October 31, 2020 by Paul Ruffy

Paddypower MBS Race 13:20 Ascot 2/3/4

£5 Smarty Wild @ 8.0

Cash-out yesterday’s £10 Racing Refund, I’ve done so on the 13:42 as shown: https://nimb.ws/r6CgsP

Paddypower £5 FB Liverpool v West Ham (17:30)

Hit claim to get this one via the banner.

#WhatOddsPaddy – Up to 9/1
£5 FB Liverpool to win 2-1 or 3-1 @ 4.50

Liverpool won 7 of their 19 home games last season by one of these scorelines, and 2 of 3 so far this season. Antonio is a big loss for West Ham but Liverpool are having to have a real defensive reshuffle and have one clean sheet in six so far.

Paddypower – Featured Power Price

£4 Chelsea, Bournemouth & Brentford all to win @ 6.5

We’ve already got £8 on Chelsea and Bournemouth with the Skybet Treble so I’m keeping stakes small but this one actually looks better value, so if you didn’t do the Skybet offer, maybe stake £10 on this one.

Skybet MBS Race 13:20 Ascot 2/3

£5 Dr Sanderson @ 6.0

Betfred Bet £10 get £5, Wales v Scotland (Rugby Union 14:15)

Qualifier

Back Wales -7.5 @ 21/20 for £10 @ Betfred, then lay Wales -7.50 on Betfair @ 2.3 see: https://nimb.ws/Msaop0

FreeBet: (should be credited just before 20:05)

France v Ireland 20:05
(This is a fairly arbitrary pick but games between these have been typically close)
£5 FB France to win by 1-5pts @ 6/1

Betfred £5 FB (If Salah scores)

Qualifier:

I’ve done this one a slightly different way:
Back BTTS Yes @ 2.38 with Betfred, then back BTTS No @ 1.64 Smarkets for 14.63.
That costs about 83p give or take: https://nimb.ws/dDLjy4

FreeBet
Sunday (If Salah Scores, which he is about a 3/4 chance to do so)

Betfred £5 FB (refund from Friday Pick Your Punt)

Osasuna v Atletico Madrid (17:30)
Match Result and BTTS
Atletico and No @ 15/8

Fc Nantes v PSG
Match Result and BTTS
PSG and No @ 15/8

£5 FB double @ 7.26/1

PSG have 6 clean sheets in 8 and won four of the last 6 H2H “to nil”. Atleti have conceded 1 goal in five league matches. Osasuna have not scored against Atleti in the last five head to heads.

Betfair Sportsbook Bet £10 get £10

Qualifier:
£10 Chelsea to win and Both Teams to score (@ 1.6 & 1.83 via Same Game multi) @ 3.04

Laying the Chelsea/Yes result on the winner and both to score market on markets for £7.98 : https://nimb.ws/9Pfqg2
You might be able to get matched at lower than 3.7 but wither way, £2 for a £10 FB is acceptable.

FreeBet Advice:
Sunday/Monday

Friday 30th October

Posted on October 30, 2020October 30, 2020 by Paul Ruffy

Betfred Pick Your Punt Wolves v Palace

Total goals – under 1.5 (1st half)
Result – wolves win (2nd half)
£5 @ 2/1 via pick your punt builder

Wolves have only scored 2 first half goals so far this season and Palace have only conceded 2.
Palace can throw up the odd surprise result but I don’t see NES and Wolves allowing them the same freedom on the counter that Man Utd did and I don’t see an open game here.
Palace had 10 shots on target against Fulham but previously against Everton, Chelsea and Brighton they managed just 2 across three games.

Paddypower MBS 2/3/4 13:45 Newmarket

£10 Mishal Star @ 4.5 (used power up to 5.0)

Pokerstars Requestabet Friday’s (Opt in required)

Qualfiers

Burnley – Chelsea 15:00 Sat
Request a Bet
£5 Chelsea to score over 0.5 goals in each half@ 2.00

Liverpool – West Ham 17:30 Sat
Request a Bet
£5 Liverpool to win and Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.47

FreeBet

Liverpool v West Ham 17:30 Sat
Liverpool and BTTS @ 2.50

Tottenham v Brighton 19:15 Sun
Tottenham and BTTS @ 3.10

£5 FB double @ 7.75

Paddypower Featured Power Price

Raul Jimenez to have 1 or more shots on target
£15 @ Evens

Interesting to see Paddys now offering the same kind of boosts as Skybet. This would have paid out in 6 of his 8 starts this season.

Paddypower Enhanced Treble – kicks off Friday 19:30

Racing Post NAP “This Will Not Be Beaten”
£5 Hull, Port Vale, and Stuttgart to win @ 8.5

Skybet Priceboosts

Sheff Utd v Man City
£10 Sterling to have 1+ shot on target @ Evens

This one would have paid in 9 of 11 this season for Stirling.

Soccer Sat Price Boost

£4 Chelsea, Bournemouth & Barnsely to win @ 10/1
£4 Chelsea and Bournemouth to win and Watford to draw with Barnsley @ 10/1

I don’t see much wrong with Chelsea and Bournemouth but in the Championship there’s a sense that Watford and Barnsley are in false positions based on performances so far, with expected goals putting Barnsley in the top half and Watford in the bottom half. Of course Watford could start playing better, and probably will at some point but opposing them makes more sense for now.

Betfred £5 FB (Refund from Thurs pick your punt)

Fulham v WBA Draw @ 12/5
Leeds v Leicester Draw @ 13/5
Man Utd v Arsenal Draw @ 13/5
£1.25 FB Trixie (£5 staked)

All three of these look like they could be tactical battles with teams sitting deep, perhaps low on goals and the draw is a big runner.
With this bet we need two to produce a profit, all three means a big win.

Paddypower £10 FB (outstanding Acca refund)

Celtic v Aberdeen Sunday 14:30 (Scottish Cup)
Celtic to win and BTTS @ 3.75

Celtic gifted Aberdeen 2 penalties and a third goal from a defensive mistake in last weeks 3-3 thriller.
Aberdeen are playing well enough to get on the scoresheet again but a Celtic win looks the most likely result with Celtic winning the five previous head to heads prior to that game.

Saturday 24th October

Posted on October 24, 2020October 24, 2020 by Paul Ruffy

There’s quite a wealth of worthwhile offers today, all detailed below, I will update this post as I go so hit refresh to update, I should have it all done before first match kicks off at 12.30

Betfair Bet £10 get £10

Qualifier

Wolves v Newcastle
Under 3.5 Goals – Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Wolves – Match Odds
£10.00 Double @2.14 via Sam e game multi tab

12 of Wolves 15 wins last season were under 3.5 and all three of their wins this season have been under 2.5.

FreeBet Advice
Monday

Betfred £5 Refund

Millwall v Barnsley (Championship 15:00)
Millwall @ 2.05
Doncaster v Crewe (League One 15:00)
Doncaster @ 1.95
Lazio v Bologna (Serie A 19:45)
Lazio @ 1.62

£5 FB Treble @ 6.48

Betfred Bet £10 inplay get £5

Qualifier
Will tweet example, suggest any match today at HT, West Ham v City HT will be about 1:15pm
Freebet:
Sunday

Betfred £5 Risk Free -UFC

Going to swerve this one, as odds don’t look very good.

Skybet Bet £5 get £5 inplay offer (opt in required)
Man Utd v Chelsea 17:30

Qualifier
Suggest backing over 2.5 at kick off (assuming its still over 1.50) laying on Smarkets.
FreeBet
will tweet my pick at HT

Skybet MBS Race

13:45 Doncaster
£10 Just Frank @ 5/2

Skybet £4 FB (from Golf Offer)
As the Betfred Treble above

Millwall v Barnsley (Championship 15:00)
Millwall @ 2.00
Doncaster v Crewe (League One 15:00)
Doncaster @ 1.91
Lazio v Bologna (Serie A 19:45)
Lazio @ 1.67

£5 FB Treble @ 6.38

Paddypower MBS Race

£5 Wrenthorpe @ 7.50

Paddypower Power Prices
Turbo Power Price –
£5 Crystal Palace, Norwich and Barcelona all to win @ 9.0

This one is best priced at about 7.5 with the bookies and looks worth being with to small stakes.

Boylesports £10 Risk Free (mobile only)

£10 Man Utd v Chelsea Draw and BTTS @ 4.0 (place via mobile device)
This is a bit of saver having backed Utd and BTTS on the Pokerstars offer.
Goals look assured with Chelsea having just one clean sheet in 21 PL aways. And both teams have scored in all five of Utd’s matches this season (excluding EFL Cup)

(Both are priced at 4.0 with Boyles so its a toss up between the two if you’re not doing the Pokerstars bet.)

Pokerstars Risk Free £20 – Man Utd v Chelsea
(check your account for this one)

After clicking opt in – I’ve got the £20 as below

Qualifier:
£20 on Man Utd and BTTS @ 4.20 (no lay)

Although both these sides have been inconsistent, Utd do seem to have gotten their swagger back of late and Chelsea have conceded 42 goals in 21 PL away matches under Lampard, they’ve conceded 3 against Southampton and West Brom already this season. Utd to win and both teams to score looks a decent option.

Unibet Bet £10 get £5

Man Utd v Chelsea 17:30
Qualifier
bit expensive this one but its still worthwhile.
If you wait until later you might get a closer match.
£10 draw and BTTS via bet builder @ 4.0, laying 4.9 Smarkets: https://nimb.ws/bqaXoh

FreeBet:
TBA

Friday 23rd October

Posted on October 23, 2020October 23, 2020 by Paul Ruffy

A good defensive display from Rangers scuppered our treble last night, so for the 2nd time this week we were one short.
Plenty more to go at this weekend.

From yesterday:
Skybet £7 Freebet from Golf Offer
Villa v Leeds 20:00
£7 FB Correct score group betting – Villa to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 @ 3.75

Betfred £5 Pick Your Punt Refund
Nottm Forest v Derby
£5 FB Forest to win 1-0 @ 5/1

Derby have scored just 3 goals in 8 games this season, losing thier last two games 1-0. Forest have won the last two head to heads 1-0 and although they have only scored three goals themselves, they have reason to look up with the appointment of Chris Hughton looking to have brought about improvement.

Skybet MBS Race 13:50 Cheltenham

£10 Midnight River @ 3.75

Paddypower MBS 14:40 Doncaster

£5 Tinto @ 9.0

Paddypower Power Price
RP Postcast Power Price (under specials)
£7.50 Doncaster, Getafe & Forest Green all to win @ 10.0

Skybet Priceboost

West Ham v Man City (12:30 Sat)
£10 Aguero 1+ shot on target

Pokerstars Requestabet Friday:

Qualifiers:

Manchester Utd – Chelsea (Sat, 17:30)
Request a Bet, Over 0.5 Goals in the 1st Half and Over 1.5 Goals in the 2nd Half
£5 @ 2.10

Borussia Dortmund – FC Schalke (Sat, 17:30)
Request a Bet, Borussia Dortmund to score over 0.5 goals in each half
£5 @ 1.57

FreeBet:
Liverpool v Sheff Utd (20:00 Sat)
Match Result and Both Teams to Score – Liverpool and No @ 2.20
Man Utd v Chelsea (17:30 Sat)
Man Utd @ 2.35

£5 FB double @ 5.17

Betfred Risk Free Pick Your Punt

How will Team Win?
£5 Aston Villa win to nil @ 3/1 – via pick your punt builder

Got two bets on my side Villa which is dangerous! However, their performances are backed up with solid reasons such as their Xg against averaging under 1.0 for around 10 games now and the improvement in the final third from Watkins, Grealish and Barkley, along with the return to form/fitness of McGinn.

Acca Insurance Five fold Paddypower or BetVic

Atalanta v Sampdoria (14:00 Sat)
Atalanta @ 1.40
Liverpool v Sheff Utd (20:00 Sat)
Liverpool @ 1.22
Dortmund v Schalke (17:30 Sat)
Dortmund and over 1.5 @ 1.29*
Barcelona v Real Madrid (15:00 Sat)
Barcelona @ 2.0
Burnley v Tottenham (20:00 Mon)
Tottenham @ 1.57

£10 five fold with Paddypower @ 6.91

Or if you cant bet with Paddys, replace Dortmund and over 1.5 with Dortmund in the match odds @ 1.2 with BetVic and it will qualify for Acca insurance there too.

Weekend Bets

Posted on October 16, 2020October 16, 2020 by Paul Ruffy

Skybet Priceboost

£10 Chelsea, Brentford & Bournemouth all to win @ 6.0

We’re not having much joy with enhanced prices so far this season but this will even out over time and some big value with this not being much over 3/1 in real chances.

Skybet Bet Bet £5 get £5 (opt in required)

Qualifier:
Back Liverpool at 1.8 for £5 laying at 1.9 Smarkets: https://nimb.ws/KUzp6d

Freebet:
Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid (Sat)
Atletico win to win to nil @ 2.63
Getafe v Barcelona (Sat)
Barcelona to win to nil @ 2.88
£5 FB double @ 7.55

Barcelona have two clean sheets from 3 in La Liga and have the lowest Xg against @ 1.4. Barca have won two of the last three head to heads “to nil” and Getafe have the lowest expected goals for @ 2.3 having played four games.
Niether Getafe or Atletico have scored in over 180 minutes of football so a goal could be enough in Vigo, Atleti have more options up front however and it’s hard to see the likes of Costa, Suarez and Joao Felix having a dry spell lasting much longer.

Paddypower £10 FB (refund from Acca)

Sheff Utd v Fulham (Sun)
Sheff utd @ 2.10
Inter v AC Milan (Sat)
Inter @ 2.3
£10 double @ 4.83

Sheff Utd and Fulham have both had identical starts and lost all four matches. I’m minded to give Sheff Utd more forgiveness though since they played the whole game vs Villa with 10 men and they certainly have more scope for improvement, particularly now that they have added a useful looking striker with Rhian Brewster. At the back, Fulham look worse than Sheff Utd and that could be the difference.
In the Milan Derby (“Derby della Madonnina’) Inter are rightly favourites but still look a nice enough price. They’ve won the last four renewals and although Milan are in form, having lost only twice in 2020, one of those losses was this fixture in February when they threw away a 2 goal lead to lose 4-2.